This post was submitted by a Friend of Whydev, working and living in Ethiopia, who will remain anonymous.
The world has had its attention captured by the protests in Tunisia and Egypt. As the former’s government fell and latter’s sits on the edge of the abyss, it leads me to think: who is next?
What about Ethiopia?
First, a bit of background, for those not initiated in the politics of this sprawling, beautiful, ancient and deeply complicated country. Since forming a transitional government in 1991, the politics of Ethiopia have been controlled by the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) and its leader Prime Minister Meles Zenawi . The EPRDF was re-elected in 2010 by winning (along with its coalition partners) an impressive 99% of the vote – though this result was hotly contested by the European Union election monitors stationed around the country. Prior to this, a much more fiercely contested election contest took place in 2005. Initial results seemed to have shown that the EPRDF may have lost that election, though they didn’t agree with this appraisal and proclaimed themselves the winner. This led to days of protests and rioting, and the deaths of approximately 150 people.
As protests rage in North Africa, it led me to think about some of the parallels between the political situation in Ethiopia and Egypt and Tunisia. As with Presidents Mubarak and Ben Ali, Prime Minister Zenawi has been in power for decades and has increasingly moved to concentrate and consolidate power in his hands and the hands of the EPRDF. For all intents and purposes, Ethiopia is now a one-party state. The process over the last five years has included deeply troubling accusations regarding the use of aid money to influence the politics of the county. The media and Internet are censored. Over 70 journalists have had to flee the country in the past decade. Ethiopia is an ally of the United States and other Western powers. However, Ethiopia does owe significant political and economic allegiance to China due to the billions of dollars worth of investments made in recent years.
Then, what are the prospects for an Egyptian style revolt? Will Ethiopians soon fill Meskel Square and march Churchill Avenue asking for democratic reform and the removal of Mr. Zenawi from power?
Probably not.
The last wave of protests in 2005 led to violence and numerous deaths, but no real concessions from the government. In fact, the rather clever response of the EPRDF was to consolidate its power over the election process, removing any sense of a “level playing field” and paving the way to the 99% election victory last year. When this is coupled with the near blanket government control of the media, there is very little political space for opposition. There is no Mohamed ElBaradei or a “Muslim Brotherhood” in Ethiopia, and the main opposition leader, former Federal judge Birtukan Mideksa, was only recently released from prison and she appears to be in no position to lead a popular revolt against the EPRDF.
There are three additional significant reasons I believe you will not see a popular revolt.
First, the lack of Internet penetration in Ethiopia, and the government monopoly of telecommunications, would preclude any Twitter or Facebook revolutions. Both are available now, but could and would be blocked immediately if the government was faced with protests such as those seen in the Arab world. There are only 450,400 Internet users as of June last year, 0.5% of the population, and only 146,020 Facebook users as of August. A 0.2% penetration rate.
Second, Ethiopia has had its fair share of violent revolutions. In fact, the EPRDF roots lie in the Tigray People Liberation Front, which along with its Eritrean allies, engaged in a bloody and long civil war with the Marxist-Leninist military regime, known as the Derg. They eventually overthrew the Derg in 1991, but not before the “Red Terror” had killed a half a million political opponents and left the world with the nightmares of the Ethiopian famines in 1984-1985. The Derg itself had come to power in a violent coup, when it overthrew Emperor Haile Selassie I.
This history is embedded deeply in the Ethiopian consciousness. Despite its faults, the EPRDF has established a sense of stability in Ethiopia that is strongly valued. The 2000 war with Eritrea withstanding, many regions of Ethiopia have seen a level of peace not know in previous generations. It is very likely that this sense of stability may provide a second sober thought to those who seek to overthrow the current government. In many ways, the popular support of Paul Kagame in Rwanda and Prime Minister Meles Zenawi in Ethiopia share this “stability” factor.
Last, development will play a role. Ethiopia is by most measures a very poor country. The latest Human Development Index ranked Ethiopia at 157. However dire this situation may seem, Ethiopians look at the current situation relatively positively. There have been significant levels of growth. Ethiopia had the 5th highest GDP growth between 2001-2010 and is predicted to follow behind only China and India in the next five years. Construction in Addis Ababa is everywhere, the Internet is getting faster, and the roads are better (though still dangerous). This leaves Ethiopians in a very different position than their North African colleagues, who have seen their economies stagnate and poverty grow. Many Ethiopians appear to applaud the development focused policies of the EPRDF and the government remains a darling of the aid and development world. The people of Ethiopia do worry about human rights abuses and the uneven dispersal of this growth, but many seem comfortable with the current situation. Could this high growth rate and sense that “things are getting better” stop the type of democratic-minded revolts seen in Tunisia and Egypt?
Time will tell if Ethiopia will follow the path of Egypt and Tunisia, but the governments control of Internet media, popularity (real or imagined), and its development and stability focused policies seem to indicate that for the time being, things will remain quiet in this complicated country.
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I guess as education develops in the world people will seek knowledge and apply it to the satisfaction of an enlightened population that will seek redress of their rights to equity and justice. They will address their concerns in a more forceful manner, like what is happening around the middle east and else where in the world i.e. Myanmar.
Indeed people will ultimately know that everyone is equal, and that even the equalizer should not be more equal than the others. The old sense of stability with Kings and Princesses was purely an illusion, for the protector became the oppressor and the needs of goveernance escalated from horses and chariots to super bombs and stilt bombs and planes.
Leisure has been elevated to a necessity where the imagery of luxury has been so well depicted and made real, at enormous cost. It is part of the legitimate aspirations of those who have arrived in the helm of anything and everything, becoming a major industry if not the fuel for a countries economy like Spain. There is no longer any limit on what is need and what is want.
People are waking up however to their basic rights and there is no telling how far they will go to assert those rights.
Your job, therefore, is vital to postpone an explosion that could engulf the middle east whose old ways are difficult to change
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